The Final Fantasy XIV Alpha testing is rolling out and the hype continues to build.  FFXI and FFXIV are going to be sure to share much of the same players and demographics.  So what kinds of things can we reasonably expect for their upcoming relationship?  Here are some of my personal expectations.

Remember when FFXII was released and half your linkshell disappeared for a while?  And now that FFXIII is out half your friends are perma-AFK much of the time.  I think it's pretty reasonable to expect 14 to have the same effect, only more so.  In many ways Final Fantasy games are its own worst enemy.  Probably some players will experience what I'll call "graphic shock" upon returning to their 8 year old FFXI setting after seeing 14.  While some will prefer one over the other, many will prefer to play around in both as they see fit.  And the playerbase will probably fluctuate up and down accordingly with content updates.

It gets more interesting when its time to find out how much interest 14 has generated from players among other MMORPG's.  During the game's initial  beginning pretty much everyone is going to be checking things out to see if it warrants their monthly fee.  This means a lot of non-committed players of varying qualities raked up from all over the internets.  Both good and bad.  But make no mistake about it, the worst of the illiterate internet hellspawn will be out in mass.  I think that many committed FFXI players who are perhaps insulated may wind up very shocked at just how bad it could get.

Through their continuous efforts, Square has been highly successful at eliminating RMT activity from FFXI.  It's going to be interesting to see how they will use that experience while dealing with 14.  For certain, the RMT have been hard at work preparing for the release of FFXIV just as much as any regular player.  Constant RMT chat advertisements, botting (both RMT and players), duping, and hacking are all things Square will have to quash fast after the release of 14.

Then there's the fickle business of the player's reception of the game itself.  If other MMO's are any precedent, 14 will be endlessly compared to WoW (e.g. "why doesn't it have 'mounts?!? "why no jumping?!?").  In past interviews Square has indicated the initial world of 14 will be about the same or slightly less than 11.  Will there be enough to keep gamers interested?  A lack of content can be extremely dangerous for a new MMO, no matter how pretty.  If you've done it all, there are other games to experience.  However the ability to level any class on the same character may be a huge help toward staving off boredom while you continuously try new things.  Even so, my past encounters have taught me there will always be an obnoxious minority of players who will insist a game is "dying" and has no content even if it's patently untrue.  Through the eyes of some people, the second an MMO drives off the lot it begins to "die" apparently.  (I'll give it about 5 months before it becomes a routine subject)

A popular idea that has been brought up all over the internet forums is the idea of a combined subscription package for both FFXI and FFXIV.  I really hope that if demand for it remains high Square will listen and introduce something like this.  It could work to persuade pessimistic 11 players to give 14 a try, and perhaps even incentivize the rarest of rare phenomenon, a new FFXI player.  Plus I just want to see them call it the "Final Fantasy XXV package" (11+14, get it?).  I mean, c'mon, the marketing writes itself.

It would also be natural to expect the 11 and 14 Fanfests to become one shared event.  This makes total sense from a community standpoint as well as a business point of view.  Two game expos for the price of one plane ticket, not too shabby.

Eventually after a lot of the hype has died down and players decide how to divvy up their play time, we might begin to see things from FFXIV find their way into XI as well.  The back and forth influence the two games can share may be a dynamic way of making XI more casual, and preserving some of XI's features that players want to see in XIV.  For example, maybe we could see TP gain added to spells in 11, or Ranger attacks that make enemies flee, or maybe spell casting while moving.  Possibilities go on and on.

Some people seem utterly convinced that the arrival of Final Fantasy XIV means imminent doom for XI.  But I don't think that will be the case at all, for all these reasons and more.  It will be fun to see how the relationship between the two evolve and interact.